Vodafone Idea Ltd (VIL) shares have experienced a remarkable rise, climbing for four consecutive sessions. On Friday, the stock gained 3.58%, reaching a high of ₹9.25. This marks an impressive 19.50% surge over just four days. This rally has caught the attention of investors, but the question remains: what lies ahead for this telco stock?

Analysts Express Cautious Optimism

While Vodafone Idea's stock performance reflects short-term resilience, analysts are cautious due to concerns about a potential decline in its subscriber base. According to Centrum Broking, the company could see a 40 lakh reduction in subscribers, bringing the total to 20.1 crore in the December quarter. On a positive note, the Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) is expected to grow by 5% QoQ to ₹164 per month.

“The ongoing capital infusion and network strengthening are medium-term positives, but subscriber retention remains a challenge,” said Kranthi Bathini, Director of Equity Strategy at WealthMills Securities. Bathini advised investors with a high-risk appetite to hold the stock, noting that improvements in equity infusion or liability write-offs could further enhance prospects.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch

From a technical standpoint, ₹8.50–₹8.40 serves as a strong support zone, while resistance lies in the ₹9.50–₹10.80 range. 

Future Outlook: 5G Rollout and Promoter Activities

Vodafone Idea is rolling out 5G services in select regions, aiming to strengthen its position in the competitive telecom market. Additionally, the UK-based Vodafone Group recently sold its remaining 3% stake in Indus Towers, raising ₹2,800 crore to bolster VIL’s financial position.

As of December 2024, promoters held a 38.80% stake in the company. Any significant capital infusion or liability relief could improve Vodafone Idea's outlook, but subscriber losses remain a pressing concern for the telecom operator.

Conclusion

Vodafone Idea’s recent stock surge reflects renewed investor interest, supported by strategic moves like the 5G rollout and capital infusions. However, challenges such as subscriber retention and financial stability persist. Investors are advised to remain cautious, closely monitoring technical levels and ARPU growth for informed decision-making.