The Union Budget is one of the most anticipated events in India's financial calendar. It sets the tone for the country's economic policies and has a significant impact on the stock market. As we approach the Union Budget 2024, presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, let's take a look at how the Nifty has performed in different time frames around the budget presentation in previous years. At MBC Trading Platform, we provide insights and analysis to help you navigate these crucial periods. Analyzing Past Nifty Returns Here’s a detailed analysis of Nifty returns one month before, on the budget day, and one month after the Union Budget in the past years:
| Budget Date | One Month Before (%) | Budget Day (%) | One Month After (%) |
| 23/07/2024 | 5.0% | ? | ? |
| 01/02/2023 | -2.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 01/02/2022 | 1.0% | 1.5% | -6.6% |
| 01/02/2021 | 1.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% |
| 01/02/2020 | -4.5% | -2.4% | -4.0% |
| 05/07/2019 | -1.4% | -1.0% | -7.1% |
| 01/02/2019 | 1.6% | 0.6% | -0.1% |
| 01/02/2018 | 6.2% | -0.2% | -6.0% |
| 01/02/2017 | 5.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% |
| 01/02/2016 | -5.1% | -0.2% | -2.3% |
| 28/02/2015 | -1.1% | 0.5% | -4.7% |
| 10/07/2014 | -0.8% | -0.3% | 0.6% |
| 17/02/2014 | -2.9% | 0.5% | 6.7% |
Key Observations: - Volatility is a Given: The data clearly shows that Nifty experiences significant volatility around the budget. For instance, in 2021, Nifty gained 5% on budget day and continued its upward trend with a 5.9% increase a month later.
- Mixed Reactions on Budget Day: Nifty's performance on the budget day itself has been mixed. For example, in 2023, it dropped by 2.4%; in 2021, it surged by 5%. This indicates that investor sentiment can swing dramatically based on the budget announcements.
- Short-term Gains vs. Long-term Trends: While Nifty often shows a reactionary spike or drop on budget day, the longer-term one-month-after returns provide a clearer picture of market sentiment. The aftermath in 2022 saw a significant drop of 6.6% despite a positive reaction on the budget day itself.
- Pre-Budget Speculation: The period leading up to the budget can also be telling. For instance, Nifty was up by 6.2% one month before the 2018 budget but saw a decline of 6.0% a month after.
What to Expect in 2024? As we approach the
Union Budget 2024, we can expect a similar pattern of volatility. The market is already showing positive signs with a 5.0% gain in the month leading up to the budget. Investors will be keenly watching
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's announcements for cues on fiscal policy, economic reforms, and growth strategies.
Conclusion Understanding past trends can provide valuable insights, but the market's reaction to the budget is influenced by a multiple factors. As we await the
Union Budget 2024, staying informed and prepared is the best strategy. Keep an eye on our updates for the latest news and analysis.
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