NTPC Green Energy Shares Drop 37% from Record High: What’s Next?

NTPC Green Energy Ltd, one of India's renewable energy giants, has taken investors on a wild ride. After hitting an all-time high of ₹155 in December 2024, the stock plunged 37% in just four months. A recent rebound of 13.5% has sparked hope, but is this the start of a real recovery, or just a temporary bounce?

The Stock's Rollercoaster Journey

• Debut (Nov 2024): Listed at ₹111.5
• Peak (Dec 2024): Soared to ₹155.30
• Current Price (May 2025): Hovers near ₹98.85

With a market cap of ₹83,294 crore, NGEL remains a heavyweight in India's green energy push. But the sharp correction has left many wondering—what went wrong, and can the stock bounce back?

Why Did the Stock Crash?

1. Profit-Taking After Rally – The stock surged too fast after listing, leading to a natural correction.
2. EBITDA Margin Pressure – Margins dipped from 88.9% to 83.5%, raising concerns over profitability.
3. Sector-Wide Volatility – Renewable energy stocks globally have faced ups and downs due to shifting policies and interest rate fears.

The Good News: Strong Fundamentals

Despite the fall, NGEL's long-term story remains strong:

• 52.3% jump in net profit (Q3 FY24)
• Revenue growth (4.1% YoY)
• Backed by NTPC & Govt. – Secured PPAs reduce revenue risk
• India's Renewable Push – 500 GW target by 2030 ensures steady demand

What's Next for Investors?

• The stock is testing key support at ₹97. If it holds, a rebound towards ₹105-120 is possible.
• A break below ₹97 could signal more downside.

• Execution is key – Can NGEL deliver on its project pipeline?
• Policy support – Will the govt introduce more incentives for renewables?
• Debt management – Lower interest rates could boost margins.

Should You Buy, Hold, or Sell?

• ✅ Buy if... You believe in India's renewable energy boom and NGEL's execution strength. Look for entries near ₹97-100.
• 🔄 Hold if... You're already invested but watch for a break above ₹105 for more upside.
• ⚠ Caution... If the stock breaks ₹95, wait for better support levels before buying.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Please consult a financial advisor Mbc trading Platform  before making any investment decisions.